Energy market:

Gas prices in Europe continue to fall. Why? Because the summer is cold and there is no need to spend money on energy for air conditioners. Just great. Warm winters, cold summers, life is like a thermostat. And in the head with the disappearance of seasonality, nothing new appears.

Good weather to all! Hello!

This issue has been prepared with the direct participation of analysts from eOil.ru and IDK.ru trading platforms.

Here an assessment of the situation in the world and Russian markets is given. There were forecasts that the growth of the American economy will continue to slow down. In the 4th quarter, only +0.5% is expected, which will lead to a growth of only 1.2% for the year. In such a situation, there is no need to talk about any optimism in the oil market. OPEC+ countries will have to continue to closely monitor the level of demand and, if necessary, reduce production.

Prices can support the replenishment of reserves by states, as this is happening now in the grain market, where importers create additional reserves.

Speculation about raising the debt ceiling in the United States, which, if unsuccessful, could lead to a freeze in government agencies, does not subside. There is money until the end of May, and then we’ll see. It is unlikely that the current American elite is ready to destroy their own state. We are monitoring this situation. If they suddenly do not agree on raising the ceiling of the state debt, then the oil market may drop significantly at the moment.

Targets can be either at 66.00 or at 50.00.

Grain market:

The grain deal has been extended for 2 months. The decision in the current situation is more than controversial, but it added a few points to Erdogan’s piggy bank. On May 28, the second round of elections in Turkey. And we need Erdogan, since the second candidate is much worse and has already mentally sold out to Washington, which he actually does not hide.

On positive forecasts for the gross harvest and the announcement of the extension of the grain deal, wheat quotes continue to fall. FOB prices for milling wheat have settled, perhaps for a long time, at $250 per tonne, encouraging importers such as Egypt to buy in bulk. Cairo will significantly increase the volume of wheat storage in the near future, which will allow it to stay on stocks for up to 9 months instead of the current 5. We see that prices of over $400 per ton have taught the country’s leadership a lot this winter.

USD/RUB:

The pair stabilized around 80.00. On the one hand, the budget deficit continues to grow, but on the other hand, there is a feeling of decreasing pressure at the international level despite the adoption of the 11th package of sanctions by the EU.

We do not rule out a move to 88.00, it will have to be done sooner or later, perhaps in August, but for a stronger rise, we must be in a situation where parallel imports will be extremely difficult. With a fairly tough line of conduct, not a single neighboring country will dare to argue with Moscow, since dependence on Russia is much higher than on the West. In this sense, it is useful to remember the guests at the May 9th parade. Given the ongoing export of hydrocarbons, the rate above 90.00 is not visible.

Brent. ICE

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.

At the moment, there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers decreased by 8.9 thousand contracts. Buyers and sellers left the market. Buyers did it somewhat more actively. The spread between long and short positions is shrinking, and the bulls are at risk of losing their lead.

Growth scenario: we are considering the May futures, the expiration date is May 31. We are trying to turn up. Can buy.

Fall scenario: it will be very difficult for the bulls to get up. Keep shorts.

Recommendations for the Brent oil market: Purchase: no.

Sale: no. Who is in position from 86.50, move the stop to 77.90. Target: $66.67 per barrel.

Support — 73.66. Resistance — 77.62.

WTI. CME Group

US fundamental data: the number of active drilling rigs decreased by 11 units and now stands at 575 units.

Commercial oil reserves in the US increased by 5.04 to 467.624 million barrels, while the forecast was -0.92 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline fell -1.381 to 218.33 million barrels. Distillate inventories rose by 0.08 to 106.233 million barrels. Inventories at Cushing rose by 1.461 to 35.468 million barrels.

Oil production fell by -0.1 to 12.2 million barrels per day. Oil imports rose by 1.307 to 6.86 million barrels per day. Oil exports rose by 1.434 to 4.31 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports fell by -0.127 to 2.55 million barrels per day. Oil refining increased by 1 to 92 percent.

Gasoline demand fell by -0.395 to 8.908 million bpd. Gasoline production fell by -0.341 to 9.482 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports fell by -0.009 to 0.844 million bpd. Gasoline exports rose by 0.17 to 0.93 million barrels per day.

Demand for distillates fell by -0.299 to 3.736 million barrels. Distillate production increased by 0.25 to 4.856 million barrels. Distillate imports rose by 0.017 to 0.128 million barrels. Distillate exports fell -0.042 to 1.236 million barrels per day.

Demand for petroleum products fell by -0.606 to 19.558 million barrels. Production of petroleum products increased by 0.307 to 21.711 million barrels. Imports of petroleum products fell by -0.034 to 2.022 million barrels. The export of oil products increased by 0.135 to 6.496 million barrels per day.

Demand for propane rose by 0.164 to 0.618 million barrels. Propane production increased by 0.023 to 2.482 million barrels. Propane imports fell -0.007 to 0.074 million barrels. Propane exports fell by -0.025 to 1.617 million barrels per day.

We look at the volumes of open interest on WTI. You should keep in mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the last week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group exchange.

At the moment, there are more open long positions of asset managers than short ones. Last week the difference between long and short positions of managers decreased by 15.6 thousand contracts. Vendors entered the market. The buyers remained neutral. The spread between long and short positions narrowed. The advantage of the bulls has decreased.

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is June 20. Can buy. But we don’t have high hopes for the long.

Fall scenario: if there is an increase to 76.00, it makes sense to sell. Short entry from current levels is also possible.

Recommendations for WTI oil:

Purchase: now. stop: 69.00. Target: 85.00.

Sale: now and when approaching 76.00. Stop: 79.00 Target: 62.00?!

Support — 63.88. Resistance — 73.55.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: consider the May futures, the expiration date is June 12. We continue to wait for the fall to 600.0. When this happens, it will be available for purchase.

Fall scenario: you can sell when you approach 750.0. Short from current levels looks underestimated.

Gasoil recommendations:

Purchase: when approaching 600.0. Stop: 570.0. Target: 800.0.

Sale: when approaching 750.0. Stop: 780.0. Target: 550.0?!

Support — 629.75. Resistance is 707.00.

 

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is June 28. Our stubbornness paid off last week. Let’s continue to hold longs.

Fall scenario: we will not sell from current levels. Out of the market.

Recommendations for natural gas:

Purchase: no. Who is in position between 2.137 and 2.223, move the stop to 2.100. Target: 3.340.

Sale: no.

Support — 2.546. Resistance — 3.342.

Arctic diesel fuel (Surgut), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: Another week has passed, but the situation has not changed in any way. We are above 50,000. We continue to recommend purchases. The processing industry will be burdened with taxes that it will pass on to consumers.

Fall scenario: for sales, we need growth to at least 70,000. In the meantime, we will be out of the market.

Diesel market recommendations:

Purchase: now. Stop: 49000. Target: 65000 (70000). Count the risks. Whoever is in position from 55000, keep the stop at 49000. Target: 65000 (70000).

Sale: no.

Support — 50566. Resistance — 59941.

Propane butane (Surgut), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: do not buy. Let’s wait until the market cools down after the rapid growth.

Fall scenario: shorting from 25000 was not a bad idea. If you have implemented it, then you should stand in shorts. A pullback to the 17500 area will be interesting. Cooling up to 15000 cannot be ruled out.

Recommendations for the PBT market:

Purchase: no.

Sell: now and as we approach 25000. Stop: 27000. Target: 15000.

Support — 19268. Resistance — 26650.

 

Helium (Orenburg), ETP eOil.ru

Growth scenario: we continue to assume that the market is able to go up to 4000 (5000). We keep longs from 2800.

Fall scenario: current levels are understated for sales. We are waiting for growth to at least 4000, better than 5000.

Recommendations for the helium market:

Purchase: no. Who is in position 2800, move the stop to 2700. Target: 5000.

Sale: not yet.

Support — 2781. Resistance — 3750.

 

Wheat No. 2 Soft Red. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

At the moment, there are more open short positions of asset managers than long ones. Sellers control the market. Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers has decreased by 4.2 thousand contracts. Buyers entered the market, sellers left it. The spread between short and long positions narrowed. Sellers hold the edge.

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is July 15. So far, we do not see a reversal up. Let’s take a break for a week. Let’s see how it ends.

Fall scenario: we will not sell at current prices. The situation is absolutely not interesting for speculation.

Recommendations for the wheat market:

Purchase: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 601.6. Resistance — 616.0.

 

Corn No. 2 Yellow. CME Group

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the CME Group.

There are more asset managers open short positions than long positions. Last week, the difference between short and long positions of managers decreased by 16.8 thousand contracts. A small number of buyers entered the market, a small number of sellers left it. Sellers keep the edge.

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is July 15. The market went below 550.0. It’s a surprise. We take a break for a week.

Fall scenario: it makes no sense to sell. Prices are low.

Recommendations for the corn market:

Purchase: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 542.0. Resistance — 572.6.

 

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is July 15. CO continues to discharge as expected. This is very good. We are waiting for it around 1000.0.

Fall scenario: we continue to believe in the success of our shorts. It is necessary to hold positions, as the forecasts for the gross harvest are very good. If you really need money, you can close 10% of the total.

Recommendations for the soybean market:

Purchase: no.

Sale: no. Who is in positions from 1520.0, 1510.0 and 1445.0, move the stop to 1430.0. Target: 1000.0.

Support — 1299.4. Resistance — 1383.2.

Gold. CME Group

Growth scenario: reached 1950 interim target. But we need 1750. Buying there. Until we buy.

Fall scenario: we took a bit of a risk recommending to continue selling after the stop was broken, but the bulls didn’t look convincing. We’re wearing shorts now.

Recommendations for the gold market:

Purchase: not yet.

Sale: no. Who is in position from 2020, move the stop to 2030. Target: 1885 (1750).

Support — 1952. Resistance — 2000.

 

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: European may continue rising straight from 1.0800. This possibility will have to be worked out. Let’s buy.

Fall scenario: we must continue to hold the shorts. There are many interesting levels below. Including 1.0100.

Recommendations for the EUR/USD pair:

Purchase: now. Stop: 1.0710. Target: 1.1900.

Sale: no. Who is in position from 1.1000, move the stop to 1.0920. Target: 1.0100?!

Support — 1.0478. Resistance is 1.0836.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: we continue to believe that a long position from 73.00 would be ideal. So far, the market does not give us this opportunity. If we have to buy along the trend, which is not effective, then we will wait for growth above 81.60.

Fall scenario: target at 73.00 remains on radar. Now you can sell.

Recommendations for the dollar/ruble pair:

Purchase: when approaching 73.00. Stop: 71.70. Target: 88.70. Think after rising above 81.60.

Sale: now. Stop: 81.70. Target: 73.00?!

Support — 79.03. Resistance — 81.07.

 

RTSI

Growth scenario: we are considering the June futures, the expiration date is June 15. We will keep long at 112000, but we won’t be surprised if it all collapses. Right on Monday.

Fall scenario: nothing has changed. We will sell only after falling below 97500. We need confirmation of the break in sentiment.

Recommendations for the RTS index:

Purchase: no. Who is in position from 100000, keep stop at 99000. Target: 112000.

Sale: if below 97500. Stop: 99200. Target: 90000.

Support — 100910. Resistance — 103880.

 

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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