Архив за 10 июня, 2024

Сегодня, за прошедшую торговую сессию на площадке eOil.ru были показаны следующие результаты электронных аукционов:
в 10:30 Мск., топливо дизельное ДТ-А-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 67515 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (-35 руб./тн.).
В 11:00 Мск., бензин неэтилированный АИ-92-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 48570 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (+1220 руб./тн.).
В 11:30 Мск., бензин неэтилированный АИ-95-К5, базис поставки Ханты-Мансийский АО — 57000 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (+500 руб./тн.).
В 11:30 Мск., пропан-бутан автомобильный, базис поставки Тюменская область — 11300 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (+1850 руб./тн.).
В 12:30 Мск.,гелий газообразный, базис поставки Оренбургская область — 1176 руб./тн., c НДС 20%, (-54 руб./тн.).

Energy market:

You know, under the tsars and tsaristas, they were obliged to buy the newspaper of the Academy of Sciences, so that the Academy could make ends meet. Who would oblige us to buy our writings on the market unconditionally? At least a ruble each. Compulsory levies are not so bad, are they?

Here’s to reasonable pressure in government bond offerings! And that’s where we’re headed. Hello!

This issue was prepared with the direct participation of analysts of trading platforms eOil.ru and IDK.ru. It provides an assessment of the situation on the global and Russian market.

So, OPEC+ has passed, but there is still some residue. Despite the fact that they decided to stick to the agreement on reduction until the end of the 25th year, there is other information: quotas may be revised in September. The Arabs are itching to increase production. The reason is the same as before: to kill American shale producers. Having received such a contradictory story, the oil market is unlikely to be able to consolidate for many months above 80.00.

OPEC+ members are currently realizing production cuts totaling 5.86 million bpd, or about 5.7% of global demand. This figure includes 3.66 million bpd from OPEC+ members, an arrangement extended through the end of 2025, and 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts by some members, an arrangement that expires at the end of June. There’s no new information on this voluntary 2.2 million barrels yet. There is hope, but no data. And since there is, prices are going to be under pressure. There are a number of countries: Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait and the UAE, which want to produce more, having withdrawn their additional commitments on voluntary cuts.

The UAE has already been allowed to increase production by 300k barrels for the 25th year, and the rest of us don’t want to be ginger. They also want to sell more oil.

In order to overcome the differences between the firm members of the organization, OPEC countries will request information from three independent agencies that estimate production volumes. Apparently everyone there has their own ruler, it is simply impossible to measure with the same one, it is impossible to disclose all the statistics, everyone is tense and politicized and fooling each other under the veil of black muslin. Insidious. The market will continue to shake from such twists and turns.

Российскими учеными было сделано одно из самых значительных открытий – обнаружены крупнейшие запасы сырой нефти.

Нефть:

В прессе начали разгонять тему по поводу того, что СПГ может заменить нефть. Да, может. Это неприятная история для рынка нефти, так как газ наряду с батарейками прямая альтернатива топливу для автомобилей, и при этом вредя для экологии при переходе на СПГ меньше, чем при переходе на аккумуляторы. В Вашингтоне прекрасно понимают, как изменится вес игроков в случае снижения цен на нефть до 20 долларов, например к 30-му году.

С сожалением продолжаем отмечать, что геополитические риски остаются высокими.

Наши отчеты и прогнозы можно найти здесь.