Архив за 24 июля, 2023

Energy market:

Year two thousand and twenty three. It’s 50 degrees in Europe. All plants died. The Rhine is running out of water. Asphalt melts, it is no longer possible to walk on it. Skyscrapers began to sag, the metal lost its strength. In Brussels, there is a smell of fried food, air conditioners are burning, and certain parts of the bodies of politicians are burning, as always, not ready for any problems. There is nothing more to drink.

From afar, the Volga River flows for a long time … Hello!

This issue has been prepared with the direct participation of analysts from eOil.ru and IDK.ru trading platforms. Here an assessment of the situation in the world and Russian markets is given.

The oil market is currently hovering around $80 per barrel. OPEC+’s efforts to balance the market are bearing fruit. However, data on US GDP will be released next Thursday. They expect +1.8% per annum for the 2nd quarter against 2.0% growth in the 1st. If GDP growth slows down to, for example, +1.4%, then this will create additional pressure on oil.

It is impossible not to say that the Chinese economy is rapidly losing export volumes: -7% in May, -12% in June. This could become a problem for all world trade. Comrades from the Middle Kingdom refer to politics, bureaucracy, duties, and the like. But, if in fact there is none of this, and the drop in shipments is just a banal evidence of a drop in global demand, then we are actually doing much worse than it seems now.

It should be noted that for about a year now the market has stopped responding to the release of data on stocks in the US. Now all minds are busy watching the clash of East and West, and now one of the hottest topics in the past does not affect price action in any way. For this, comrades from OPEC can be given a “plus”. But still, they are sorry: they will have to further reduce production.

Reading our forecasts, you could take a move up in the gas oil market from 700.0 to 800.0 dollars per ton. You could also take a move higher in the wheat market from 632.0 to 700.0 cents per bushel. You could also make money on the EUR/USD pair by taking a move up from 1.0720 to 1.1210.

РФ одержала победу в борьбе за влияние на мировые нефтяные рынки в последние дни.

Нефть:

Текущие котировки легко объяснить ожиданием дефицита нефти в третьем и четвертом квартале 2023-го года. Но вызывает большие сомнения, что этот дефицит действительно будет. Пока для быков всё складывается удачно. Однако, где болевой порог для КСА? Когда королевство скажет, что далее не намерено сокращать предложение на рынке. Вряд ли он очень глубоко. Текущие 9 млн. баррелей в сутки КСА потерпит, а что на счет 8-ми, или 7-ми. Скорее всего мы увидим 84.00, но подняться выше будет тяжело.

Наши отчеты и прогнозы можно найти здесь.