Energy market:

Europe will refuse oil supplies from Russia within six months. It is possible that next year there will be a refusal from gas, then from wood, then from food. After that, the consciousness of all EU citizens, together with their minds, will be transferred into the virtual space. Directly to Google Drive.

Hello!

In the oil market, prices are likely to continue to rise. OPEC + went to increase oil production per day from July by 648 thousand barrels, but this was not enough for the market.

An optimistic forecast for a drop in oil production in Russia by the end of the year was announced by Mr. Novak, it will be 10% and drop to 480 million tons of oil in the worst case. According to other sources, the decline in production since the end of February has already amounted to 10%, and there will still be 10 or even 20% drops ahead. If this is true, then OPEC’s increase in production will barely be able to cope with the reduction in oil production in the Russian Federation, which means a supply deficit in the market of 1 million barrels per day, provided that the global economy does not start to slow down.

Given that the EU is not calming down and will soon impose sanctions on the insurance of goods transported by Russia by sea, we may face serious logistical problems when delivering goods to consumers.

Grain market:

It will soon become clear that a bread cake made from wheat of the fifth (fodder) class is no less tasty than a cake made from wheat of the fourth class, you just need to add a little ingenuity and some fragrant powder to the recipe to make it tasty.

One question is on the agenda: will Russia be able to export at least part of its crop this year on its ships. Perhaps not. The EU will have time to freeze all maritime transport through a ban on cargo insurance. Only land modes of transport remain.

However, Erdogan, with a stroke of the pen, recognizes the Black Sea as paved, and his ships will turn into large trucks. Don’t be really hungry. The EU is 100% self-sufficient in grain, but Turkey is not. Egypt also cannot feed its citizens on its own. We foresee some political squabbles closer to autumn over grain purchases in Russia by a number of countries.

On the 10th, the USDA will publish its next forecast. There is reason to believe that there will be less optimism in the forecasts of the gross harvest.

USD/RUB:

Despite the intrigues of the West, the ruble stands like a rock near the level of 60.00 and does not budge. The sanctions imposed by the EU on oil exports are a blow that simply cannot be compared in modern history. Even though the course does not change, the mood has deteriorated. For now, the inflow of foreign currency into the country will continue, but by the end of the year it will decrease, while the demand for imported goods will grow, which should lead to a weakening of the ruble.

Brent. ICE

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE exchange.

Over the past week, the difference between long and short positions of managers increased by 7.8 thousand contracts. Small groups of bulls continue to enter the market despite high price levels. Growth scenario: we consider the June futures, the expiration date is June 30. In fact, nothing has changed in a week. Let’s continue to hold longs. In the case of a move above 125.00, a jerk to the 150.00 area may follow.

Falling scenario: only some extremely positive news can reduce quotes. Until we sell. Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Who is in position from 112.00, move the stop to 113.00. Target: 125.00 (150.00).

Sale: not yet.

Support — 112.37. Resistance is 123.99.

WTI. CME Group

US fundamental data: the number of active drilling rigs has not changed and stands at 574 units.

Commercial oil reserves in the US fell by -5.068 to 414.733 million barrels, while the forecast was -1.35 million barrels. Inventories of gasoline fell -0.711 to 218.996 million barrels. Distillate inventories fell -0.529 to 106.392 million barrels. Inventories at Cushing rose 0.256 to 25.034 million barrels.

Oil production has not changed and stands at 11.9 million barrels per day. Oil imports fell by -0.268 to 6.218 million barrels per day. Oil exports fell by -0.351 to 3.99 million barrels per day. Thus, net oil imports increased by 0.083 to 2.228 million barrels per day. Oil refining fell by -0.6 to 92.6 percent.

Gasoline demand rose by 0.179 to 8.977 million barrels per day. Gasoline production increased by 0.545 to 9.968 million barrels per day. Gasoline imports rose by 0.043 to 0.89 million barrels per day. Gasoline exports rose by 0.289 to 1.063 million barrels per day.

Demand for distillates rose by 0.102 to 3.969 million barrels. Distillate production fell -0.163 to 4.984 million barrels. Distillate imports rose by 0.183 to 0.263 million barrels. Exports of distillates rose by 0.229 to 1.353 million barrels per day. Demand for petroleum products fell by -0.172 to 19.512 million barrels.

Oil products production fell by -0.036 to 21.31 million barrels. Imports of petroleum products rose by 0.747 to 2.751 million barrels. The export of oil products increased by 0.152 to 6.387 million barrels per day.

Propane demand fell by -0.012 to 0.621 million barrels. Propane production fell by -0.098 to 2.354 million barrels. Propane imports fell -0.009 to 0.072 million barrels. Propane exports fell by -0.299 to 1.342 million barrels per day.

We’re looking at the volume of open interest of WTI managers. You should keep in your mind that these are data from three days ago (for Tuesday of the past week), they are also the most recent of those published by the ICE.

Last week, the difference between long and short positions of managers increased by 8,000 contracts. Sellers left the market while buyers entered it. We go up.

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is June 21. We will keep open longs three weeks ago. We look up. \

Falling scenario: we will continue to refrain from selling. After the EU decision to ban the export of Russian oil, even shorts from 150.00 do not look right.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Who is in position from 109.00, move the stop to 110.00. Target: 150.00.

Sale: not yet.

Support — 116.33. Resistance is 131.67.

Gas-Oil. ICE

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is July 12. We keep going up. There are no interesting levels to enter long. You can take a small amount of current. Count the risks.

Falling scenario: no rollback. Fuel prices will continue to go up.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now and on a rollback to 1200.0. Stop: 1100.0. Target: 1800.0.

Sale: no.

Support — 1224.00. Resistance — 1824.50.

Natural Gas. CME Group

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is June 28. We continue to refrain from shopping. Waiting for cooling. Summer is in the yard, and with gas reserves in Europe, everything is not so bad. Only Germany still has 50%, but it will get there by the fall.

Falling scenario: we continue to believe that it would be interesting to enter short from 10.200. Sales from current levels are possible.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: when approaching 10.200. Stop: 11.200. Target: 7.500. Or now. Stop: 9.100. Target: 7.000. Who is in position from 9.000, move the stop to 9.100. Target: 7.000.

Support — 7.627. Resistance is 9.057.

Soybeans No. 1. CME Group

Growth scenario: we consider the July futures, the expiration date is July 14. A sharp drop in prices to 1500 is possible. We do not buy.

Falling scenario: if we get to 1800.0, then shorting is a must. Shorts are possible from current levels. Count the risks.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no.

Sale: when approaching 1800.0. Stop: 1830.0. Target: 1350.0. Or now. Stop: 1749.0. Target: 1500.0.

Support — 1577.2. Resistance — 1749.4.

Sugar 11 white, ICE

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is June 30. The upward movement has stopped, we still hold long positions. In case of growth above 20.20, you can add.

Falling scenario: we continue to believe that shorts from 21.60 are possible. Selling from current levels looks premature.

Recommendation:

Purchase: now. Stop: 19.00. Target: 21.60. Who is in position from 19.80, keep the stop at 19.00. Target: 21.60.

Sale: think when approaching 21.60.

Support — 18.30. Resistance is 20.50.

Сoffee С, ICE

Growth scenario: we are considering the July futures, the expiration date is July 19. We go up. Target 248.00. We hold longs. At current levels, you can add.

Falling scenario: do not sell. When approaching the 250.0 area, you can go short.

Recommendation:

Purchase: no. Those in positions between 211.0 and 217.0, move the stop to 221.00. Target: 248.00.

Sale: at a touch 247.00. Stop: 257.00. Target: 200.00.

Support — 229.70. Resistance is 248.90.

Gold. CME Group

Growth scenario: another downward blow cannot be ruled out. We don’t buy.

Falling scenario: holding shorts. If there will be a blow up in 1890 it can be sold.

Recommendations:

Purchase: when approaching 1720. Stop: 1700. Target: 2300!

Sale: now. Stop: 1876. Target: 1730. Or when approaching 1890. Stop: 1920. Target: 1730.

Support — 1787.70. Resistance — 1889.

EUR/USD

Growth scenario: stopped for now. Most likely, we will decline by the ECB meeting on the 9th to 1.0600.

Falling scenario: we will sell when we return in the region of 1.1000.

Recommendations:

Purchase: no.

Sale: think when approaching 1.1000.

Support — 1.0608. Resistance is 1.0804.

USD/RUB

Growth scenario: the market returned to 61.00. It is unlikely that there will be bulls ready to buy dollars, since the possibility of their further use is questionable. We will soar above the level of 60.00. Possibly several months.

Falling scenario: shorts are not considered. The Central Bank showed both by lowering the rate and by lifting some of the bans that it is not interested in the dollar exchange rate below 60.00.

Recommendations:

Purchase: no.

Sale: no.

Support — 59.98. Resistance — 71.03.

RTSI

Growth scenario: to sing “Our proud Varyag does not surrender to the enemy”, it is still early, but the mood is far from rosy. Almost all Russian companies that form the basis of the index are under pressure from the West, and the level of this pressure is constantly growing. We are waiting for a structural development program from the government, for example, by autumn. Without it, it will be impossible to stabilize the situation in the economy.

Falling scenario: in the current configuration, a move to 130000 is still possible. A stronger rise looks almost unbelievable. In the current area, you can look for opportunities to enter the shorts.

Recommendations:

Purchase: no. Close all positions.

Sale: when approaching 130000. Stop: 133000. Target: 100000 (80000). Or now. Stop: 122000. Target: 100000 (80000). Who is in position from 126000, keep stop at 127000. Target: 100000 (80000).

Support — 110980. Resistance — 121020.

The recommendations in this article are NOT a direct guide for speculators and investors. All ideas and options for working on the markets presented in this material do NOT have 100% probability of execution in the future. The site does not take any responsibility for the results of deals.

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